Bright New Mobile Future
Uploaded flickr by gholzer
Windows Mobile was originally launched as Pocket PC in April 2000. It was born in an age when Microsoft was busy trying to tie everything to the Windows Desktop and cast a long shadow over every part of the IT industry. It was not long after that that the Windows wheels fell off when the US DOJ and the EU put paid to that. However Windows Mobile is a product of that past where the motive was to tie customers (mostly enterprise) to the Windows platform and windows groupware products. It is this motive that will be the destruction of Windows mobile.
Microsoft has up till recently insisted that the Windows folder experience is what is necessary and that Windows desktop users would be comfortable with using it on a mobile device. This was however a circular argument because the number one mandate was to proliferate the Windows brand, so that justification was made, however RIM had made that argument dead in the water. What RIM did find was that push email/calendar and contacts the number one issue.
Microsoft also made the mistake that they made in the portable music market, the Plays for Sure approach was an unmitigated disaster. They believe that OS distribution model (eg Windows) would win over an OS integrated approach (iPod). This idea was firmly beaten into the ground with the introduction of Zune player which is an integrated music player. What they forgot and continue to ignore is that with mobile devices, the number one issue is the experience on the devices, and the iPod ushered that era in bringing about a renassiance of the Mac Operating System.
It is ironic that RIM and Blackberry ended up doing a much better job of delivering functionality to the mobile enterprise and now dominates the push email market for corporate. It is the one device that held held back the Windows Mobile from dominating.
With the spectacular success of the iPhone, having in the last quarter moved past RIM in smartphone revenues, RIM is now having to respond, and have a raft of new devices coming out in the next few months. Google and their launch partner T-Mobile have released the new Andriod platform and App Store. They have effectively rationalized the linux mobile market and set Linux on the path to significant market share. Motorola is putting their “Good” people behind Andriod and you will see a raft of new capabilities including their messaging platform move to Andriod.
All this will mean Microsoft will have to respond with their own hybrid experience. They will need to develop an App Store to compete with the others. But this too has challenges because apps will need to be tested over a wide number of devices, whereas Apple only has to test on a single platform. Google intends to have one App Store that will allow distribution to all Andriod phones. The problem with all this activity is that for Microsoft, they have to follow what others are upto. And all this activity is without the benefit of the Windows monopoly. Microsoft has never succeeded where they have not been able to force users to adopt through the Windows operating system, and Windows Mobile is no different.
According to Bob Cringely, Windows Mobile is doomed because of simple market dynamics, that is there will be no room for a Windows mobile device. He states that it will be dominated by iPhone, Android, RIM and everyone else. He believes that handset manufacturers will abandon Windows mobile because they need to go where the action is (read critical mass). They can’t go to iPhone or RIM, which means they will migrate to Android with it’s open architecture, App store and enormous Google presence. What this means for Windows Mobile is over the next year it will continue to be marginized and more handset manufacturers will quietly drop the OS over the much cheaper (read free) Andriod OS and features.
Only time will tell, but it is hard to see how Microsoft can compete with the iPhone freight train and the Android sexyness. They could release a Zune phone but as everyone knows that ship has sailed….
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