My post on the weekend about the impending doom for Zune created a lot of feedback. Most of it was positive but some was negative and their were the usual supporters from the “Microsoft can do no wrong” cult. Here is some responses to the feedback:

IPod was successful because it was cool

Those of you who support the iPod, the iPod was not successful because it was cool, it was successful because it created an integrated music experience that released us from the tyranny of the Compact Disk (CD). Although there we very good players before the iPod, such as the Rio Player and the Sony MiniDisk Walkman, it was Apple that first made it so simple that anyone could purchase, burn and listen to music. Itunes is by far the easiest CD ripper and music organizer on the market. You dont need a degree in computers to load and play music. Yes the iPod is cool but the compelling feature is the simple to use interface (both iTunes and iPod).

Also the click wheel allowed you to use it when commuting. Using one hand while holding onto the railing on the subway train is very important. It is no coincidence that New York is a huge market for Apple.

The iPod has better sound than the Zune and vice versa

This is not the point. Better sound is a subjective criteria (ie matter of taste) and beside most Joe and Joeline Sixpack’s can’t tell the difference anyway. What did happen is that they could rip and listen to their music in a couple of mouse clicks.

The XBox is a Success therefore the Zune will be successful argument

This is bogus. Firstly I don’t believe the XBox is a success as defined by Microsoft. Microsoft lives by the curse of the Windows/Office monopoly. This means that people measure Microsoft success by the success of Windows, that is anything less than total domination of a market is a failure. In Microsoft terms, Xbox, 3rd place in a market with two strong competitors is not good. After 5 years on the market it is

However I want to be fair to Microsoft, it is extraordinarily rare that a product can capture the kind of market share that Windows/Office has. I can think of only two other products that have that level of success, the iPod and Google. We cannot realistically expect any company to meet the ridiculously high standard of Windows/Office market share and nor should we measure Zune based on this high standard.

To answer the question, Xbox and the gaming market has nothing to do with the Portable Music Player market other than they have some overlap of users. The Zune is not a product extension of the Xbox no matter how much you can allude to Zune mixing with the Xbox environment. They are decisions that can and are being made separately.

iPod is not compelling

Bollocks !!!!, in the last quarter (1Q 2007) was 21 million units including me buying 2 new iPods (Nano as a gift and a blue shuffle for the gym, I have the 60GB Video as well).

My point was that the Zune has no compelling features over and above the iPod, and in fact it has less features, the wireless thing is a gimic and it has been crippled by it’s DRM system and the concessions made to the music industry.

Summary

The point is that the Zune has been a miserable failure (29 - 40K units see here) by any consumer product which is why the VP for Zune was fired. It offers no compelling features over and above the iPod and hence no reason to purchase the product over the industry standard. To get the product to market, Microsoft had to make major concessions to the music industry which left the product crippled. The only way to create a compelling product beyond what Apple has is to completely support MP3 and make it into an open platform which isn’t going to happen.

So unless something radical happens, the Zune is doomed…..

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