I think I have said before that the only thing that Zune is going to kill is Playsforsure partners. This player is no IPod Killer. Despite Microsoft’s marketing dollars the product still needs to deliver an experience unique and compelling to the intrenched competition. I have argued this before about Linux on the Desktop and I am arguing this for the Zune player. But let’s see what the blogosphere has to say:

…the Zune looks as appealing as day-old dog chow, or Windows 95.

That’s what I think we’ve got here: a feature no one asked for, and something of doubtful need. (Ever hear of passing the headphones?) Honestly, what Microsoft egghead thinks kids want to beam self-destructing songs to each other’s media players? And even if they wanted to trade tunes, the wireless range had better be 100 miles. If this thing sells as slowly as I fear it will, that may be as close as the nearest Zune to share with.

The fact is, this meager offering here is not an iPod killer. Nothing Redmond can produce in this product line will make much of a dent in Apple’s lead. This shareholder only hopes Microsoft can avoid embarrassing itself too much. Zune seems to have done that, but I can’t help but feel Microsoft’s time and money would be better spent getting Xbox 360 into more living rooms, and getting Windows Vista out the door on time.

Motley Fool

Where does Zune offer Microsoft some hope? Surely not in the Soviet-style industrial design - and surely not from gimmicks such as disappearing, time-bombed songs. Or the fact it brings another incompatible DRM scheme to the public. And while it may do more than the iPod, unless it does the basics very well or better, it’ll suffer the same fate as Microsoft’s phones. Which also do lots of things, none of them particularly well, and which only gadget-heads want to be seen with.

The Register

We shared a laugh, but this jocular exchange highlighted Microsoft’s main issue: for now, developers and consumers alike are united in their desire for the coolest gadget. Community is a great concept, but people gotta have the device in order to enable a community of users. That begins with making a dent in Apple’s device dominance. And that’s a tall order.

Sugar Gum

The basic advocates for the platform all hung onto the Wireless play feature, one by the way that can be easily replicated in the IPod if they feel necessary to do so. The point of sharing is the network effect. That requires that you have a network, first problem. The second problem is the battery life. If you run a transmitter for wifi for long periods of time, expect howls of protest over the battery life.

Advocates point out two other points, firstly that iPod is becoming uncool. I counter that by arguing that iPod is becoming mainstream and mainstream is a much larger market that teenagers. However it is going to take an act of god to make Microsoft, the poster for Corporate America cool. If Sony couldn’t do it, Microsoft most certainly can’t. Secondly that the subscription model is a killer (read more in The Register article above) and Microsoft is heading down the subscription path. The problem with that is that the subscription model, which the music industry love, is not what the consumer likes and wants. The consumer time and time again has moved towards ownership of content over subscription. DVDs ownership has turned out to be a major business for the movie industry and exploded after they priced the movies more reasonably. (anyone remember the $130 DVD?)

There are many problems facing Microsoft rolling out a strategy like Zune. It has a double edge problem of having to roll out a product early to meet the christmas market and at the same time a stumble in the market will cause serious reputation problems. Couple this with a late core product (Vista), trying to get people to think they need more stuff in their word processor, a failed online strategy (MSN) and it is not a nice place to be in.

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